What does a milder Canadian winter mean for the world?

(NC) As Canadians swap their fall jackets for winter coats, weather experts and scientists predict that the winter of 2026 – 2027 may be milder than usual. The reason is a climate phenomenon known as El Niño, which occurs naturally when sea temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, disrupting weather patterns around the world. This year, forecasters are predicting an especially strong "super" El Niño that could influence weather patterns well beyond winter.

For those who don’t enjoy shovelling snow in the freezing cold, this may sound like good news. But a warmer winter here doesn’t just mean lighter jackets and lower heating bills.

Canada depends on cold winters

Much of Canada relies on winter snowpack as a natural reservoir: Snow that accumulates through the winter gradually melts in the spring, replenishing the rivers, reservoirs and groundwater needed for farms and ecosystems. When winters are warmer and drier, less snow accumulates, meaning less water is available when temperatures rise.

Reduced soil moisture and lower water availability can affect agricultural production and can cause some pests and plant diseases to survive longer than they normally would. Across parts of Western Canada, reduced soil water can contribute to drought conditions heading into spring and summer.

It also increases wildfire risk. Less snow means less meltwater; combined with prolonged dry conditions, this makes forests and grasslands more vulnerable to fire. Canadians know firsthand the devastating toll wildfires take on communities, air quality and local economies.

The reality can be even harsher in other parts of the world

El Niño affects every region differently. In some places, it can bring prolonged drought; in others, devastating floods, extreme heat, and failed harvests. In countries such as Nicaragua and Ethiopia, where families depend almost entirely on rainfall to grow food and earn an income, even a small change in weather can lead to devastating consequences, including failed harvests, rising food prices and greater vulnerability for children and families already facing economic hardship.

For families living closest to the edge, preparing for the next drought or flood is a daily reality. That’s why organizations like Children Believe work alongside local communities in both countries to strengthen food security, support education and build resilience before climate shocks become humanitarian crises.

It’s worth remembering that the same climate phenomenon that brings many of us a milder winter may bring uncertainty to millions of families elsewhere. Maybe the most important question isn’t how warm this winter will be, but whether we recognize that the effects of a changing climate don’t stop at borders, and that our shared future depends on how well communities everywhere can adapt and thrive. You can learn more at childrenbelieve.ca.